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The Zeitgeist

Join Us. No, Really.

By Rusty Guinn | February 25, 2020

Kitchen Sink It

By Rusty Guinn | February 20, 2020

Thanksgiving

By Rusty Guinn | February 19, 2020

Love in the Time of COVID-19

By Ben Hunt | February 17, 2020

Options

By Rusty Guinn | February 12, 2020

The Promised Land!

By Ben Hunt | February 5, 2020

The Inevitable Afterbirth

By Rusty Guinn | February 4, 2020

Notes from the Diamond #9: How About Never

By David Salem | February 3, 2020

Once You Buy a Prize, It’s Yours to Keep!

By Ben Hunt | January 31, 2020

You Had One Job

By Ben Hunt | January 26, 2020

Pleased to Meet You, Hope You Guess My Name

By Ben Hunt | January 22, 2020

The Drum Major Instinct

By Rusty Guinn | January 20, 2020

The Church of the Long Now

By Ben Hunt | January 17, 2020

That Which We Call a Law School

By Rusty Guinn | January 16, 2020

Shot, Chaser

By Ben Hunt | January 13, 2020

The Fall of Wuhan

By Ben Hunt | February 24, 2020 | 12

Containment has failed.

And so now we must fight.

That means doing everything possible to bolster our healthcare systems BEFORE the need overwhelms the capacity.

That means calling out our leaders for their corrupt political responses to date, and forcing them through our outcry to adopt an effective virus-fighting policy for OUR benefit, not theirs.

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ET In Full

Epsilon Theory Manifesto

By Ben Hunt | June 1, 2013 | 1

Our times require an investment and risk management perspective that is fluent in econometrics but is equally grounded in game theory, history, and behavioral analysis. Epsilon Theory is my attempt to lay the foundation for such a perspective. The name comes from the fundamental regression equation of modern portfolio management: y = α + β+ …

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Friday Was an Important Day

By Ben Hunt | November 18, 2012 | 0

An initial examination of the informational inflection point generated by the Nov. 18th Boehner/Reid press conference. epsilon-theory-friday-was-an-important-day-november-18-2012.pdf (247 KB)

Don’t Mess with Mister In-Between

By Ben Hunt | November 8, 2012 | 0

Early research on the relationship between informational surfaces and structural market change. epsilon-theory-dont-mess-with-mister-in-between.pdf (244 KB)

Jack Welch was Right

By Ben Hunt | October 29, 2012 | 0

An analysis of systematic error in BLS data and its role in the Narrative regarding US labor conditions. epsilon-theory-jack-welch-was-right-october-29-2012.pdf (219 KB)

Donald Rumsfeld and Risk Management

By Ben Hunt | October 7, 2012 | 0

Early notes on investment as an exercise in decision-making under uncertainty. epsilon-theory-donald-rumsfeld-and-risk-management-october-7-2012.pdf (197 KB)

Hello Darkness My Old Friend

By Ben Hunt | September 29, 2012 | 0

Growing political fragmentation in Europe and its structural consequences for markets. epsilon-theory-hello-darkness-my-old-friend-september-29-2012.pdf (123 KB)

Archive Spotlight

Too Clever By Half

February 5, 2018

The inevitable result of financial innovation gone awry, which it ALWAYS does, is that it ALWAYS ends up empowering the State. When too clever by half people misplay the meta-game, that’s all the excuse the State needs to come swooping in and crush them, just as they are with Bitcoin today they did with Bear and Lehman in 2008. Installment #10 from Notes from the Field.

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ET Live!

ET Live! – 2.18.2020

February 18, 2020

This ET Live! is all about Coronavirus, except it’s not – it’s all about how institutions who solve for narrative outcomes invariably create bad results in the Real World.

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ET Live! – 1.21.2020

January 21, 2020

ET Live! – 11.19.2019

November 19, 2019

It’s the November 19th, 2019 edition of Epsilon Theory Live! Be sure to join Ben and Rusty for a discussion of all things narrative in the world of politics and markets.

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