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The Zeitgeist

The World ‘Twixt Ought To and Is

August 18, 2019

Honest investing means finding a balance between approaches which imply we know everything and those which imply we can’t know anything. It means humility.

We think there are three – and only three – paths to finding this balance. One is the heart of what we are trying to achieve with Epsilon Theory.

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ET In Full

The China Narrative That Really Matters

By Ben Hunt | January 7, 2016 | 0

I’m a China bull, let’s get that out of the way first. But like anything connected with the global industrial and commodity complex today, from Emerging Markets to MLPs to oil prices, it doesn’t matter what the Truth with a capital T might be regarding the real world economic or business fundamentals. The story is …

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Epsilon Theory State of the Union

By Ben Hunt | December 30, 2015 | 0

For the last six months I’ve been trying to figure out how to incorporate reader correspondence into Epsilon Theory. We’ve reached a point of both reader quantity (well more than 60,000 active email subscribers here at year end, >5x where we started the year) and reader quality (I’d put the sheer firepower of ET subscribers …

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Storm Warning

By Ben Hunt | December 14, 2015 | 0

Unfortunately for mariners, the total amount of wave energy in a storm does not rise linearly with wind speed, but to its fourth power. The seas generated by a forty-knot wind aren’t twice as violent as those from a twenty-knot wind, they are seventeen times as violent. A ship’s crew watching the anemometer climb even …

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I Know It Was You, Fredo

By Ben Hunt | December 8, 2015 | 0

Sen. Geary: Hey, Freddie, where did you find this place? Fredo Corleone: Johnny Ola told me about this place. He brought me here. I didn’t believe it, but seeing’s believing, huh? Old man Roth would never come here, but Johnny knows these places like the back of his hand. – “The Godfather, Part II” (1974) …

Read moreI Know It Was You, Fredo

Two Discoveries

By Ben Hunt | November 19, 2015 | 0

The world made two discoveries last week. Everyone is aware of the first discovery – that ISIS is not “a junior varsity team” but an able protagonist in what Pope Francis quite rightly calls “a piecemeal third World War”. Very few are aware of the second discovery – the existence of a polynomial-time algorithm to …

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The Andromeda Strain

By Ben Hunt | November 12, 2015 | 0

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray’s case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong …

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ET Live!

ET Live! – 7.30.2019

July 30, 2019

It’s the July 30th, 2019 ET Live! Today, we’re all MMT’ers, or at least that’s the narrative in political space. But what about markets?

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ET Live! – 7.9.2019

July 9, 2019

It’s the July 9th ET Live!, where we dive into all things Libra, Facebook and get an update on market narratives.

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ET Live! – 6.18.2019

June 18, 2019

Join us here at 2PM Eastern today for the latest edition of ET Live. Today’s edition is all about the grotesque charades and cartoons being used to cynically manipulate narratives. Not one to miss.

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ET Live! – 6.4.2019

June 4, 2019

Ben and Rusty update subscribers on the shift from cooperative to competitive games and our narrative research program, with a focus on the China Trade War and US electoral politics.

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