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The Recipe for Agent Orange – The Projection Racket, Pt. 3

By Rusty Guinn | 14 Comments

There is a true story of free market capitalism. It is one of humanity’s greatest and most important stories.

There is also a myth of free market capitalism. It is one of humanity’s most manipulated stories.

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Why Am I Reading This Now? 11.28.22

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 11.21.22

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 11.14.22

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 11.07.22

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 10.31.22

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World

By Ben Hunt | 92 Comments

Over the past 25 years, our leaders have intentionally constructed an Apocalypse Now world of proclamation and fiat, where our wealth has grown much faster than our economy.

The bill is due for their hubris, and inflation is here to collect it.

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Being Human in a LARPing World

By Ben Hunt | 38 Comments

The cure for the cancer of gun culture and police culture is not to be found in reform laws around guns and police, but in reform ideas around culture, ideas that create a new dimension of American society that rejects LARPing and LARPers alike.

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In Praise of Bitcoin

By Ben Hunt | 58 Comments

What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.

The Bitcoin narrative must be renewed. And that will change everything.

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Recent Notes

How Gold Lost Its Luster, How the All-Weather Fund Got Wet, and Other Just-So Stories

By Ben Hunt

In some periods of history gold is money. In other periods of history gold is not. But gold is always something, and that something is defined by the Common Knowledge of the day.

Today our Common Knowledge is that gold is an insurance policy against central bank error.

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The Matrix Reloaded — Seeing Markets as Informational Structures

By Ben Hunt

A review of current market informational structure one week post the June 19th FOMC announcement. epsilon-theory-matrix-reloaded-seeing-markets-as-informational-structures-june-27-2013.pdf (295KB)

2 Fast 2 Furious

By Ben Hunt

We are all impaled on the crook of conditioning. – James Dean (1931 – 1955) This note is a sequel to my letter from two weeks…

The Narrative Battle is Joined

By Ben Hunt

A review of Narrative formation efforts on June 21st to support the market. epsilon-theory-the-narrative-battle-is-joined-june-21-2013.pdf (227KB)

What’s the Opposite of ‘Green Shoots’?

By Ben Hunt

An initial examination of the informational inflection point generated by the June 19th FOMC announcement. epsilon-theory-whats-the-opposite-of-green-shoots-june-20-2013.pdf (235KB)

Failure to Communicate, Part Deux

By Ben Hunt

A review of Narrative formation immediately after the June 19th FOMC announcement. PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/15677/

Through the Looking Glass, or … This is the Red Pill

By Ben Hunt

The first ET note focused on Information Theory.

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What We’ve Got Here Is … Failure to Communicate

By Ben Hunt

From the classic Paul Newman movie, Cool Hand Luke, as the Captain administers Luke’s punishment in the prison yard for yet another escape attempt:  Captain: You…

Epsilon Theory Manifesto

By Ben Hunt

Our times require an investment and risk management perspective that is fluent in econometrics but is equally grounded in game theory, history, and behavioral analysis. Epsilon Theory is my attempt to lay the foundation for such a perspective.

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Friday Was an Important Day

By Ben Hunt

An initial examination of the informational inflection point generated by the Nov. 18th Boehner/Reid press conference. epsilon-theory-friday-was-an-important-day-november-18-2012.pdf (247 KB)

Don’t Mess with Mister In-Between

By Ben Hunt

Early research on the relationship between informational surfaces and structural market change. epsilon-theory-dont-mess-with-mister-in-between.pdf (244 KB)

Jack Welch was Right

By Ben Hunt

An analysis of systematic error in BLS data and its role in the Narrative regarding US labor conditions. epsilon-theory-jack-welch-was-right-october-29-2012.pdf (219 KB)

Donald Rumsfeld and Risk Management

By Ben Hunt

Early notes on investment as an exercise in decision-making under uncertainty. epsilon-theory-donald-rumsfeld-and-risk-management-october-7-2012.pdf (197 KB)

Hello Darkness My Old Friend

By Ben Hunt

Growing political fragmentation in Europe and its structural consequences for markets. epsilon-theory-hello-darkness-my-old-friend-september-29-2012.pdf (123 KB)

Dude, Where’s My Financial Repression

By Ben Hunt

An initial analysis of the Sept. 15th FOMC announcement of open-ended QE. epsilon-theory-dude-wheres-my-financial-repression-september-15-2012.pdf (191 KB)

Why Do Words Matter So Much?

By Ben Hunt

Early notes on importance of Common Knowledge game in understanding market behavior. epsilon-theory-why-do-words-matter-so-much-august-30-2012.pdf (753 KB) Test: epsilon-theory-why-do-words-matter-so-much-august-30-2012.pdf (753 KB)

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Why Am I Reading This Now? 11.28.22

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.



Why Am I Reading This Now? 11.21.22

Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.