Office Hours is an hour long Zoom call we have on Friday’s from 2-3pm ET. The event is exclusive to Epsilon Theory members and is a great way to hear Ben’s thoughts on markets, politics, and current events. Every Monday I post a brief recap of the previous OH. This is not a transcription of the call and doesn’t cover everything. But it does outline the main conversations we had.
Before this was posted on the ET Forum, but we’re moving it to the front page so more people can see the recap and understand the opportunities of Office Hours.
These are the major topics and ideas we discussed during the 6/24/2022 Office Hours as well as some of the biggest takeaways. If you have something you want to add to the conversation, let us know in the comments and join us next time.
In Ben’s series Things Fall Apart he uses the phrase “as above so below”. It’s an idea seen throughout the old stories. That the actions and examples of those above dictate life for those below. And Ben’s seeing a lot of brokenness both above and below.
If you want to hear some truly powerful stories from Pack members, check out the Roe v Wade topic on the forum. But here, Ben wanted to talk about the argument that was used to overturn Roe v Wade – that substantive due process is not a thing. One of the direct offshoots is that institutional due process is not a thing. At a time we’re also realizing the depth of the events Jan 6th, it’s a lot to take in and Ben is feeling very tenuous. Here’s where Ben thinks it goes.
If you’re an ET Pro member you’ve likely already seen Ben’s Pro note on the subject, but his suspicions are that at the first sign of any decline in inflation, the Fed’s going to declare victory and look to start easing again.
Weimar or War:
Ben’s learned to trust that feeling you get deep in your bones. Something stronger than just intuition. And what he’s feeling now is that the path of least resistance is continued institutional decline and mistrust. Where we ultimately end up with weimar or war.
To clarify, what Ben means by weimar is that if the Fed does not actually control inflation and instead stops short while declaring victory, there will be great rejoicing in markets for a couple of months and then all of our problems will come back stronger. And at that point it will truly be out of control.
It doesn’t have to be this way! Ben’s a firm believer that reversing the financialization and getting back to normal interest rates (no matter how painful) could be how we get back to real productivity. But he doesn’t know how we get there politically.
Yes sometimes Ben doesn’t get to all the questions brought up at Office Hours. When that happens I’ll put the questions here so he and others get a chance to answer.
- Can you expand a bit more on how Weimar happens without social chaos/revolution?
We’d love to hear your thoughts on these ideas and hope that you’ll join us next time. If you haven’t already, sign up to access the Forum and Office Hours.