Notes from the Road

An ongoing series from Rusty, who uses journeys, travel and experiences to explore the path-dependent and Bayesian estimation processes that represent the intentional and intuitive ways that every human being makes decisions. When applied to investing and political decisions, these methods can facilitate faster decision-making. If poorly applied, however, they can increase risk and exaggerate flawed priors.

Notes from the Road: Bayes and the Boreen

By Rusty Guinn | August 20, 2018 | 0 Comments

In Part 1 of his Notes from the Road series, Rusty takes us to Ireland. There he begins an exploration of path-dependence and priors in our thinking as investors and citizens.

Read more

Notes From the Road: Roadkill

By Rusty Guinn | September 17, 2018 | 0 Comments
Get well soon balloon

Part 2 of the Notes from the Road series, about the value of and problems with adaptive frameworks. In this installment, an exploration of……roadkill, and what evolution can tell us about our adaptations.

Read more

Draft Day

By Rusty Guinn | November 7, 2018 | 9 Comments

We are wired to associate outcomes with the biggest single visible variance. This is a process-breaking flaw for general managers and portfolio managers alike.

Read more