Notes from the Road
An ongoing series from Rusty, who uses journeys, travel and experiences to explore the path-dependent and Bayesian estimation processes that represent the intentional and intuitive ways that every human being makes decisions. When applied to investing and political decisions, these methods can facilitate faster decision-making. If poorly applied, however, they can increase risk and exaggerate flawed priors.
In Part 1 of his Notes from the Road series, Rusty takes us to Ireland. There he begins an exploration of path-dependence and priors in our thinking as investors and citizens.
Part 2 of the Notes from the Road series, about the value of and problems with adaptive frameworks. In this installment, an exploration of…
We are wired to associate outcomes with the biggest single visible variance. This is a process-breaking flaw for general managers and portfolio managers alike.