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The Words Behind the War

By Ben Hunt | 31 Comments

I want to show you what ‘mobilizing narrative support’ looks like, as measured by our revolutionary Perscient technology and as understood by someone who has spent the past 35 years studying, writing and teaching about this stuff.

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Grow Your Network: Bryan Moore Is A Trading Floor Veteran Turned ETF Evangelist

Do you know Bryan Moore? Host of the Active Advisor podcast at Harbor Capital, former trading floor veteran who’s built ETF desks from scratch at major firms like Morgan Stanley, RBC, and WisdomTree, and one of the most thoughtful voices on how active ETFs are reshaping the investment landscape.

If not, allow me to introduce you. Bryan has spent over two decades in the trenches of financial markets – from trading futures in the Chicago pits to building international ETF operations to educating institutional clients about the evolution from passive indexing to smart beta to active management. I wanted to connect with him because he embodies something I value deeply: the ability to synthesize complex market knowledge with genuine curiosity about human behavior and psychology.

Our conversation is LIVE now on the Epsilon Theory YouTube Channel (and this Cultish Creative Playlist). Listen and you’ll hear how a colorblind kid from Virginia who joined the military became one of the most connected voices in ETF education, why he drives in silence to cultivate quiet thinking time, and his legendary Vatican trade story.’


Read more at cultishcreative.com

2 Things You Can’t Teach: Jared Dillian on JUST PRESS RECORD

Jared Dillian came on Just Press Record to discuss his excellent new book, Rule 62: Meditations on Success and Spirituality – and he surprised me with this statement:

“You can teach pretty much anything in writing, except for two things: voice and imagination. You either have it or you don’t.”

But what if you don’t realize if you have it or not yet?

I’m only asking because I’ve felt this way before. More than once. In more than one domain too (I remember feeling this with writing music and writing words, very distinctly!).

So what is voice?


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It Takes An Outside Act To Have An Outsized Impact

Somebody was talking about the power of thinking big the other day. It was all about impact.

Then I saw somebody else talking about the power of thinking small. It was all about little efforts compounding today into bigger results later.

They’re both right and they’re both missing the real point.

It’s not about the size in the first step (although the size is obvious in end result).

It’s all about the action, today.

It could be brilliant business idea nobody has thought of before.

Everybody might say its weird or dumb or whatever, but it could change the world.

It could also be a boring act that everybody has thought of before but executed in a way nobody will ever attempt.


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It’s All Art

My dog wanted to smell (re: eat) a baggie with a few stray gummy somethings left in it that clearly fell out of some kids hands and onto the street up the block from my house.

It’s been hot, so the gummy whatevers melted in the bag.

It’s a disgusting mix of too bright colors and sugar.

And, it’s art.

If you want it to be.

It’s also trash, and a dog snack, and a snack that should have been eaten.

The point is, it’s a choice, and today I’m choosing to say it was art.


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Sunday Music: “BushWack” by Uri Caine

There’s a thin line between chaotic nonsense and chaotic substance. There’s a not so thin line between creative exploration and creative activism. Sometimes art, as protest, is too on the nose and it ends up being – temporally trite, and other times it’s personally reflective enough to be timelessly emotive.

Think protest songs for a minute. There’s a big difference between the Op Ed/opinion column singalongs and, say, Hendrix interpreting “The Star Spangled Banner.” Is it just the lyrics? I’m kind of stuck on it, because when the words are left out, the feelings that wash over you – it’s different, right?

I want to tell you about how I arrived at this thought first, but we’re going to land on Uri Caine’s musical protest song, “BushWack” and how in 2004 he gave a number of classics the Hendrix at Woodstock treatment.

Kevin Alexander shares a note every year on the 4th titled, “John Phillip Sousa- ‘Stars and Stripes Forever’: ‘A Republic, if you can keep it.” He adds some new ideas to the margins, but it’s such a great story of the song that I hope you’ll read it.

There are two parts I always appreciate the most though.


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In Praise of Bitcoin

By Ben Hunt | 62 Comments

What made Bitcoin special is nearly lost, and what remains is a false and constructed narrative that exists in service to Wall Street and Washington rather than in resistance.

The Bitcoin narrative must be renewed. And that will change everything.

Recent Notes

The Market of Babel

By Ben Hunt

“But Achilles, weeping, quickly slipping away from his companions, sat on the shore of the gray salt sea, and looked out to the wine-dark sea.”…

The Music of the Spheres and the Alchemy of Finance

By Ben Hunt

“You say that we go round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of difference to me or…

How Gold Lost Its Luster, How the All-Weather Fund Got Wet, and Other Just-So Stories

By Ben Hunt

In some periods of history gold is money. In other periods of history gold is not. But gold is always something, and that something is defined by the Common Knowledge of the day.

Today our Common Knowledge is that gold is an insurance policy against central bank error.

The Matrix Reloaded — Seeing Markets as Informational Structures

By Ben Hunt

A review of current market informational structure one week post the June 19th FOMC announcement. epsilon-theory-matrix-reloaded-seeing-markets-as-informational-structures-june-27-2013.pdf (295KB)

2 Fast 2 Furious

By Ben Hunt

We are all impaled on the crook of conditioning. – James Dean (1931 – 1955) This note is a sequel to my letter from two weeks…

The Narrative Battle is Joined

By Ben Hunt

A review of Narrative formation efforts on June 21st to support the market. epsilon-theory-the-narrative-battle-is-joined-june-21-2013.pdf (227KB)

What’s the Opposite of ‘Green Shoots’?

By Ben Hunt

An initial examination of the informational inflection point generated by the June 19th FOMC announcement. epsilon-theory-whats-the-opposite-of-green-shoots-june-20-2013.pdf (235KB)

Failure to Communicate, Part Deux

By Ben Hunt

A review of Narrative formation immediately after the June 19th FOMC announcement. PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/15677/

Through the Looking Glass, or … This is the Red Pill

By Ben Hunt

The first ET note focused on Information Theory.

What We’ve Got Here Is … Failure to Communicate

By Ben Hunt

From the classic Paul Newman movie, Cool Hand Luke, as the Captain administers Luke’s punishment in the prison yard for yet another escape attempt:  Captain: You…

Epsilon Theory Manifesto

By Ben Hunt

Our times require an investment and risk management perspective that is fluent in econometrics but is equally grounded in game theory, history, and behavioral analysis. Epsilon Theory is my attempt to lay the foundation for such a perspective.

Friday Was an Important Day

By Ben Hunt

An initial examination of the informational inflection point generated by the Nov. 18th Boehner/Reid press conference. epsilon-theory-friday-was-an-important-day-november-18-2012.pdf (247 KB)

Don’t Mess with Mister In-Between

By Ben Hunt

Early research on the relationship between informational surfaces and structural market change. epsilon-theory-dont-mess-with-mister-in-between.pdf (244 KB)

Jack Welch was Right

By Ben Hunt

An analysis of systematic error in BLS data and its role in the Narrative regarding US labor conditions. epsilon-theory-jack-welch-was-right-october-29-2012.pdf (219 KB)

Donald Rumsfeld and Risk Management

By Ben Hunt

Early notes on investment as an exercise in decision-making under uncertainty. epsilon-theory-donald-rumsfeld-and-risk-management-october-7-2012.pdf (197 KB)

Hello Darkness My Old Friend

By Ben Hunt

Growing political fragmentation in Europe and its structural consequences for markets. epsilon-theory-hello-darkness-my-old-friend-september-29-2012.pdf (123 KB)

Dude, Where’s My Financial Repression

By Ben Hunt

An initial analysis of the Sept. 15th FOMC announcement of open-ended QE. epsilon-theory-dude-wheres-my-financial-repression-september-15-2012.pdf (191 KB)

Why Do Words Matter So Much?

By Ben Hunt

Early notes on importance of Common Knowledge game in understanding market behavior. epsilon-theory-why-do-words-matter-so-much-august-30-2012.pdf (753 KB) Test: epsilon-theory-why-do-words-matter-so-much-august-30-2012.pdf (753 KB)

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Grow Your Network: Bryan Moore Is A Trading Floor Veteran Turned ETF Evangelist

Do you know Bryan Moore? Host of the Active Advisor podcast at Harbor Capital, former trading floor veteran who’s built ETF desks from scratch at major firms like Morgan Stanley, RBC, and WisdomTree, and one of the most thoughtful voices on how active ETFs are reshaping the investment landscape.

If not, allow me to introduce you. Bryan has spent over two decades in the trenches of financial markets – from trading futures in the Chicago pits to building international ETF operations to educating institutional clients about the evolution from passive indexing to smart beta to active management. I wanted to connect with him because he embodies something I value deeply: the ability to synthesize complex market knowledge with genuine curiosity about human behavior and psychology.

Our conversation is LIVE now on the Epsilon Theory YouTube Channel (and this Cultish Creative Playlist). Listen and you’ll hear how a colorblind kid from Virginia who joined the military became one of the most connected voices in ETF education, why he drives in silence to cultivate quiet thinking time, and his legendary Vatican trade story.’


Read more at cultishcreative.com

2 Things You Can’t Teach: Jared Dillian on JUST PRESS RECORD

Jared Dillian came on Just Press Record to discuss his excellent new book, Rule 62: Meditations on Success and Spirituality – and he surprised me with this statement:

“You can teach pretty much anything in writing, except for two things: voice and imagination. You either have it or you don’t.”

But what if you don’t realize if you have it or not yet?

I’m only asking because I’ve felt this way before. More than once. In more than one domain too (I remember feeling this with writing music and writing words, very distinctly!).

So what is voice?


Read more at cultishcreative.com