Lord Make Me Chaste … But Not Yet

13+ Back in 2013, when I was just starting Epsilon Theory, I would go around and give
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Ampf
Ampf
1 year ago

Ben, you’re still nuts. ; )

Merry Christmas.

Rusty Guinn
1 year ago
Reply to  Ampf

Seconded.

Peter
Peter
1 year ago

An excellent piece helping to bring clarity to a rapidly changing market (and world).
Thanks Ben

ET82
ET82
1 year ago

A business that cannot accept a rate hike path to 3% is not a business, it is a time bomb

Source: https://twitter.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1076891012298084357

Mike S
Mike S
1 year ago

“I know what it means to know something, and it’s hard.”
~Richard Feynman, physicist

I have not put in the 10,000 hours needed to form an educated opinion. For that matter, few have. Ben, it’s makes perfect sense to me but practicality and common sense is hard to come by these days…Happy Holidays!!!

J Z
J Z
1 year ago

I asked myself why would Stan came out in front of the CROWD and “pray” for the pause. My conclusion is that the more he emphasize “pause” the more fear the crowd would be and next day’s 500 dow move will become 1000 dow move if Powell do NOT pause. Maybe Alpha is scarce and Epsilon is the edge but to say Stan come out just to show people he “pray” does NOT feel right to me. He is doing something and that could be the common knowledge fear.

Mike S
Mike S
1 year ago

Perfect Twitter fight from Taleb for some shots across the bow to challenge conventional thinking….

Taleb…A Confession. When I usually don’t have skin in the game, I am usually dumb.

7- Perhaps the worst problem with IQ is that it seem to selects for people who don’t like to say “there is no answer, don’t waste time, find something else”.

9- It is PRECISELY as a quant that I doubt “IQ”.
I’ve spent 34 years working w/”High IQ” quants. I’ve rarely seen them survive, not blow up on tail events.

Those high IQ who have survived like @financequant /Renaissance happen to be yuuugely street smart

10- Skin in The Game…shows that the only robust measure of “rationality” & “intelligence” is survival, avoidance of ruin/left tail/absorbing barrier, (ergodicity). Nothing that does not account for ability to survive counts as a measure of “intelligence”– just philosophaster BS.

The Fed, Druck and Mnuchin Calling the Banks….put them all together and what do you get???

Scott
Scott
1 year ago

Now Playing: Jerome Powell as The Hard Man, in the drama “A Stranger Comes to Town”. Don’t forget the popcorn!

Barry Rose
Barry Rose
1 year ago

Hi Ben – Jason & Rusty think you’re nuts, but a nice kinda nuts. Grandfatherly. I mean, you keep asking the impossible questions: who does that? I keep wondering, though, if you should be chasing Chaos Theory instead of Epsilon Theory (although yours does sound better). Who benefits from all this chaos in the world? Can it really be one narcissistic individual, watching with glee as all the systems of the earth bounce around like a pinball machine? I don’t know, and maybe understanding is optional.
“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” ~ Mark Twain

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