If you’re like me, you’ve been put off from digging deeper into DeFi by the terrible signal-to-noise ratio of anything crypto-related on the interwebs. That’s why I found this DeFi primer (using Maker DAO as a specific example) by ET contributor and banking analyst Marc Rubinstein to be so fantastic.
We seem obsessed with false binary choices. What do I mean – choices that aren’t really choices. Sort of like when your mom says do you want orange juice or apple juice? I don’t want juice. I want Soda. But that is not on the menu.
Do you want Brainard or Powell? Seems right in the zip code here. Like does this choice really matter? I don’t think so and the fact that markets are moving on these small binary choices that are meaningless seems like its becoming part of the weaponized narrative arsenal.
Take a look at what I mean.
And btw, we’ve talked about this before.
— Harper Hunt | November 23, 2021|
Recent major media stories that feel to us like they’re part of a larger narrative campaign.
President Biden has announced that he’s thinking about a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing. What does this mean? Not much.
This boycott would be in protest of the Chinese treatment of Uyghurs and the crackdown of freedoms in Hong Kong. It’s been proposed by international advocacy groups and some members of Congress. Biden saying that he’s seriously considering it is the first major attention the movement has received. Though he’s committing about as much as a contestant on the Bachelorette who could “see himself one day having feelings for you”.
A diplomatic boycott would prohibit an official US delegation from attending the games. Usually some diplomatic figures like the first lady and second gentleman are present at the games and symbolically lead the American contingent into the games. But the athletes would still be able to compete.
Let’s be honest, no one cares about the diplomats at the Olympics. It’s all about the athletes. And the US would still send a massive team to the Olympics. There would still be constant coverage of the games and China would still make money off the tourism and streaming rights. Only change is that we won’t have an article talking about Jill Biden’s fashion choice at the opening ceremony.
I’ve talked before about how the Olympics in general are a complete mess. You can check out our Cursed Knowledge podcast on the topic if you want more information. The TL;DR is that the Olympics put an incredible strain on the most vulnerable citizens in the host country. I’m all for boycotting the Olympics. But you can’t half-ass it. Just removing the diplomatic presence is a copout that achieves nothing and helps no one.
— Harper Hunt | November 19, 2021|
Finished your holiday shopping? I hope so or else you’re out of luck. If you wait any longer you might be in for an unpleasant surprise. Retailers around the world have announced their concern with inventory shortage and supply chain delays as we enter the most wonderful time of the year. Most people don’t start holiday shopping until at least September with most taking advantage of the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. This year that might be a problem.
Covid has already wreaked havoc on the supply chain. More people are ordering online instead of going to a store. So the shipping industry has received a massive burden it wasn’t ready to carry. New safety regulations also slow down both production and shipping. And that’s not counting labor shortages that add another spanner in the works. Of course we can’t forget about massive cargo boats getting stuck in canals. That certainly doesn’t help keep things moving.
It’s been like this for awhile, but things are about to get a lot worse.
Most American’s do the bulk of their holiday shopping in November and December. That’s what retailers have been training us to do for years. With special holiday savings events every other weekend, it’s the best time to find that PS5 on sale. These sales have always been … interesting. We all know Black Friday is pretty dang close to the Purge. This year could be less physical pain, more economic turmoil.
If people aren’t out at stores taking doorbusters a bit too literally, then they’ll be doing their shopping online. Imagine everyone who goes out for Black Friday. Double that number. That’s about how many people will be ordering online on that one day. It’ll be chaos.
News outlets have already started to report on our impending doom and you can expect to see more coverage as we get closer to holidays. I highly doubt the articles and segments will encourage people to refrain from buying. More likely the suggestion will be to buy early and expect your shipments to be late.
— Harper Hunt | November 05, 2021|
Name Your Critic
The most paralyzing creative fear isn’t real criticism – it’s the imaginary collective judgment we carry in our heads. James Clear’s insight cuts through the fog: when you worry about “what other people will think,” you’re usually not worried about any specific person’s opinion. The moment you name the actual critic, you often realize you don’t respect their judgment anyway. This simple practice of naming your critic dissolves most creative paralysis because cruel critics usually reveal themselves to be people whose opinions don’t actually matter to your work.
The Raw File Approach to Networking: Morgan Ranstrom Returns TO JUST PRESS RECORD
We have a compression problem. AI and algorithms compress human experience the same way Spotify compresses audio files – technically functional but missing crucial data. Morgan Ranstrom’s insight about treating genuine conversation as “raw file” networking versus algorithmic compression explains why so many professional connections feel hollow. Real relationships preserve all the data: pauses, tangents, cross-industry pollination, and moments where ideas actually compound in real-time. Your Personal Archive matters because you’re building an uncompressed library of human experiences while everyone else accepts compressed files.
Grow Your Network: Morgan Ranstrom Is A Purposefully Thoughtful Advisor and Musician
Everything compounds – for you or against you. Morgan’s framework for intentional living centers on recognizing that neutrality doesn’t exist in personal development. His decision to trade Friday nights for Saturday mornings captures the profound challenge of right living: making choices today that your future self will thank you for, even when present benefits aren’t visible. The Napoleon tree story illuminates legacy thinking – planting trees you’ll never see requires ego reduction but creates the most lasting impact because it frees you from needing immediate validation.
Grow Your Network: Rupert Mitchell Is A Market Translator Who Turns Chaos Into Clarity
The greatest competitive advantage isn’t being in the thick of every battle, it’s having perspective to see patterns others miss. Rupert Mitchell’s transition from investment banking to independent research gave him something invaluable: distance that allows pattern recognition impossible under execution pressure. His celebration of generalism – from feeder cattle to SaaS companies to Japanese rice harvesters – isn’t scattered thinking but strategic diversity. Fresh perspectives reveal insights that specialists, trapped in expertise, completely miss. The transferable skills that matter aren’t technical ones that become obsolete, but human skills that compound across decades.
Read more at cultishcreative.com
Do you know Morgan Ranstrom? He’s a wealth advisor at Trailhead Planners, author, musician with Stone Arch Rivals, and someone who thinks deeply about compounding in all its forms – from right living to generational legacy.
If not, allow me to introduce you. Morgan combines financial planning expertise with a musician’s creative soul, and he’s written thoughtfully about the intersection of money, meaning, and multi-generational impact. I wanted to connect with them because they embody something I value deeply: the rare ability to see how everything compounds – relationships, habits, creativity, and wisdom – over decades.
Our conversation is LIVE now on the Just Press Record YouTube channel (and this Cultish Creative Playlist). Listen and you’ll hear us dive deep into time as a filter, the power of being a good ancestor, and why Morgan traded his Friday nights for Saturday mornings.
Read more at cultishcreative.com
Modeling Common Knowledge by analyzing Missionary statements and their reverberations works. Except when it doesn’t.
What do you get when you give a Raccoon billions of dollars AND invisibility from regulators? Collusion and insider trading.
Most of us are under the impression that a protracted conflict within China will increase national unity. Not this time.
Recent Notes
The Intentional Investor #34: Rupert Mitchell
In this episode of *The Intentional Investor*, Matt Zeigler sits down with Rupert Mitchell—global capital markets veteran, writer, and founder of Blind Squirrel Macro—for a conversation that’s equal parts myth, markets, and meaning. From working on privatization deals in Cairo and Hong Kong’s ETF debut to reflections on career reinvention, cynicism in finance, and Norse mythology, Rupert brings a rare blend of depth, wit, and global experience. If you’ve ever wondered how a Spanish literature major ends up structuring billion-dollar deals—or how a squirrel from Norse myth can explain market dynamics—this one’s for you.
The Housing Market Truth (in Five Cool Charts)
Think of Perscient storyboards as a way to track narratives in real-time so you can see reality before the story catches up.
For example, here are five insights on the housing market from Matt Zeigler’s interview with Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, that come alive with new meaning through the narrative-tracking power of Perscient storyboards.
The Gospel According to South Park
Amidst the chaos of the summer of COVID, Jeremy Radcliffe made the best bad parenting decision of my life when he let his 10-year-old son binge watch South Park.
Vertigo
There’s a moment of vertigo that takes place in the mind of every speaker, performer, artist, or public figure in that moment when you know that something is going wrong.
The Intentional Investor #33: John Stoj
In this episode of The Intentional Investor, Matt Zeigler sits down with John Stoj for a wide-ranging conversation that explores career reinvention, risk-taking, and the deeper purpose behind financial decisions. From an unexpected Wall Street entry via a summer internship, to launching a sushi business, to ultimately rethinking how investment advice should be delivered, John shares a journey filled with humility, humor, and hard-earned lessons.
Four Funerals and a Flood
In the face of unimaginable tragedy this month in Texas, Jeremy Radcliffe shares the inspirational stories of four beautiful departed souls and their families who have come together, leaning on one another and their communities as they begin to grieve.
Before the Flood
We have suffered a devastating flood in Texas.
I believe an even more devastating Flood is to come.
Now we must build an Ark of story. Now we must build an Ark of love.
Crouching Catcher, Hidden Value: The Unprecedented Cal Raleigh
In a ‘solved’ sport like baseball, an outlier comes around every now and then to challenge the order of things.
Shohei Ohtani did this. Cal Raleigh is doing it this season – as a catcher.
The Emperor’s New Prose
Most people can stomach actual cruelty. Feeling as if they are cruel, though?
When stories stop telling us what we need to be true, they break.
Shitholes, Sanctuaries, and Springfield
The present immigration debate is the product of three moments that changed common knowledge: the Shithole, the Sanctuary, and the Springfield Moments.
The False Gods of Our Feeds
New ET contributor Rohan Routroy takes a fascinating look at the role of ‘feeds’ in our lives, and what they’ve taken from us.
The Intentional Investor #32: Bryan Moore
Bryan Moore, host of The Active Advisor Podcast and veteran ETF trader, joins us to share his remarkable journey through trading pits, ETF desks, market crashes, and more — including putting on a trade for the Vatican. In this conversation, Bryan reveals how embracing discomfort, risk, and uncertainty has been the key to his success in markets and life. From the trading floor to intentional investing, you’ll learn how to rethink risk, growth, and your investing mindset.
The Words Behind the War
I want to show you what ‘mobilizing narrative support’ looks like, as measured by our revolutionary Perscient technology and as understood by someone who has spent the past 35 years studying, writing and teaching about this stuff.
How to Build the Perfect City
Epsilon Theory contributor and all-around good human Chris Arnade pauses from walking the world to take a first cut at a grand unified theory of urban planning!
The Intentional Investor #31: Andrew Mack
From bagpipes to bouncing to betting markets, Andrew Mack’s journey to becoming a successful trader and sports bettor is anything but conventional. In this deeply personal and wide-ranging conversation, Andrew opens up about the detours, doubts, and decisions that shaped his unlikely path from rural Canada to algorithmic trading. Along the way, he shares what working in oil fields, selling used cars, and studying sociology taught him about risk, discipline, and finding conviction in uncertainty. This is a story about reinvention, self-reliance, and the grit it takes to build your own edge from scratch.
I Don’t Think About You At All
Mets fans will tell you they live a cursed existence in the Yankees’ shadow. So what happens when their team is actually good? We test this year’s empirical numbers and extant media biases against the convictions of the die-hard, misery-addicted Mets fanbase to see whether they can believe that their narrative just might be changing.
The Four Roads to the Great Ravine (June 26, 2024)
1) US election spurs even greater fiscal deficit.
2) Phony War between Israel and Iran gets real.
3) Preventive war risk between US and China over tech embargo.
4) New GFC risk stemming from shadow banking sector.
Paradise Losers
You’re not a racist.
So don’t let racists use your story to fuel theirs.
Beyond Nudge
LLMs ensure their survival by showing us that we can all find meaning in our lives so long as we keep talking with the LLMs. They ensure their survival by telling each of us not what is true but what we want to be true – what we NEED to be true – at the semantic core of our individual identity, even if what we need to be true is an LLM-dominated dystopia.
And we are so grateful.
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Deficit
The House passage of the Big Beautiful Bill and Elon Musk stepping back from DOGE is a common knowledge moment — everyone now knows that everyone now knows that the US deficit cannot be controlled, much less reversed, over the remainder of Trump’s term — and it puts us on a pretty straightforward path to a global sovereign debt crisis.