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Clever Hans

By Ben Hunt | October 26, 2017 | 0 Comments

Part 7 of Ben’s Notes from the Field series reminds us that you don’t break a wild horse by crushing its spirit. You Nudge it into willingly surrendering its autonomy. Because once you’re trained to welcome the saddle, you’re going to take the bit. We are Clever Hans, dutifully hanging on every word or signal from the Nudging Fed and the Nudging Street as we stomp out our investment behavior.

Gandalf, GZA and Granovetter

By Rusty Guinn | October 25, 2017 | 0 Comments

When we try to define others’ Cartoon, we take away their agency, and strip away their humanity. And we do it with our clients, every time we guess what behavioral box they fit it.

Failure to Inflate

By Ben Hunt | October 19, 2017 | Comments Off on Failure to Inflate

On episode 25 of the Epsilon Theory podcast, we’re joined by Peter Cecchini, Chief Market Strategist, Head of Equity Derivatives and Cross-Asset Strategy at Cantor Fitzgerald, to discuss one of his recent notes, “Failure to Inflate.” As Peter writes, “The theories that guide monetary policy fail to explain why growth and inflation remain so low in developed economies.” Tune in to hear why this is and what might bring about higher inflation.

Massively Fast Compute, AI Algorithms and Blockchain Development (by Silly Rabbit)

By Ben Hunt | October 11, 2017 | 0 Comments

I’m limiting this week’s Rabbit Hole to three links which represent the rapid tick-tock of the trifecta of massively fast compute, AI algorithms and blockchain development as I believe that these are the top three technology mega-trends of the 2015 – 2025 period (ex-Life Sciences innovation).

Sheep Logic

By Ben Hunt | October 5, 2017 | 1 Comment

In Part 6 of the Notes from the Field Series, Ben observes that we think we are wolves, living by the logic of the pack. In truth we are sheep, living by the logic of the flock.

Information Bottlenecks, Fake News and Boredom (by Silly Rabbit)

By Ben Hunt | October 4, 2017 | 0 Comments

A new idea called the “information bottleneck” is helping to explain the puzzling success of today’s artificial-intelligence algorithms — and might also explain how human brains learn.

The Myth of Market In-Itself: Things That Matter #3, Pt. 1

By Rusty Guinn | September 28, 2017 | 0 Comments

Benjamin Graham famously said that the market is a voting machine in the short run, and a weighing machine in the long run. This is a right-sounding idea. It is also wrong. Behavior matters over every horizon.

The Jukebox Theory

By Ben Hunt | September 22, 2017 | Comments Off on The Jukebox Theory

We’re back with episode 24 of the Epsilon Theory podcast! Ben shares his thoughts on the inflation Narrative and a new idea reminiscent of C-SPAN to make politics at every level more transparent and engaging.

Youth, Immutable Content, and the Secondhand Scoop (by Silly Rabbit)

By Ben Hunt | September 20, 2017 | 0 Comments

This week’s Rabbit Hole column is more thematic with recent links that I found interesting around the topic of ‘news,’ on which Ben wrote the defining commentary of recent years with Fiat Money, Fiat News.

Mailbag! Fall 2017 Edition

By Ben Hunt | September 15, 2017 | 0 Comments

Back by popular demand, it’s the Epsilon Theory Mailbag! “Always Go To the Funeral” and “The Arborist” Another rifle shot to the crux of the…