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In The Flow

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In the Flow – You Are Here (March 2019)

March 11, 2019

Where are we in March, 2019? We’re seeing a resurgence in the narrative and policies associated with a good old fashioned beggar-thy-neighbor currency competition.

Also, here’s our summary of where we think we are in each of the five evergreen macro issues of markets – inflation, central banks, trade and tariffs, US fiscal policy, and the credit cycle.

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In the Flow – Why Your Long-Vol Allocation Isn’t Working

March 4, 2019

It’s not impossible for market volatility to spike massively through some deflationary shock to the financial system like a China-driven credit crisis or an Italy-driven euro crisis. What’s impossible is TO GET PAID for taking out an insurance policy against the last war.

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In the Flow – It’s the Multiple, Stupid

February 25, 2019

Whether it’s ITT and Hal Geneen, or Teledyne and Henry Singleton, or GE and Jeff Immelt, or Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett … at some point these companies get too big to continue growing through acquisition. There’s no more step-function P/E growth to be had on the E side of the equation. So they ALWAYS start focusing on the P side – the multiple – which is entirely a creature of narrative.

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Narrative Monitors

ET Pro Inflation Monitor

Weimar

We track the prevalence and attention of inflation topics in financial and broadly circulated news sources, including their attachment to narratives around financial markets.

Updated through February 28, 2019. Updated monthly.

ET Central Bank Omnipotence Monitor

Central Bank Omnipotence

We track the prevalence and attention of credibility attached by a wide variety of news sources to central banks and their influence on participants in financial markets.

Updated through February 28, 2019. Updated monthly.

ET Trade and Tariffs Monitor

Trade

We track the attention paid to and sentiment of a various trade and tariff-related topics in a range of news sources, especially with respect to their attachment to financial market narratives.

Updated through February 28, 2019. Updated monthly.

ET US Fiscal Policy Monitor

Fiscal Policy

We track the strength and consistency of narratives about US fiscal policy, including budgets, tax policy and debt.

Updated through February 28, 2019. Updated monthly.

ET Credit Cycle Monitor

Knights Templar Bank

We track the strength of narratives about the credit cycle in general, plus lending, liquidity and other trends in credit markets.

Updated through February 28, 2019. Updated monthly.

In Focus

ET In Focus reports are single-issue topical analyses. They cover investment and portfolio construction topics, issues relating to the businesses of investment management and wealth management, and narrow analyses of the narrative structure and trends on specific issues, companies, sectors, countries or financial markets.

Is ESG Now Part of the Zeitgeist?

March 18, 2019

In this ET Pro In Focus note, we explore the narrative structure of ESG and SRI investing. Our question: is it finally part of the Zeitgeist, or a trend that will continue to come and go?

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How (And How Not) To Raise Money

March 7, 2019

For fund managers and asset management executives, the fundraising question is often the most important and most inscrutable. Understanding how narratives and career risk factors interact with decision-making processes is critically important.

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Every Unhappy Family (Q1 2019 Country Narratives)

February 17, 2019

We introduce a new narrative measure and then put major global equity markets under the narrative microscope in Q1 2019.

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