Epsilon Theory In Brief


Daily short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes. Look out for regular features like the subscriber mailbag and guest contributions from within the Epsilon Theory network.

The Stereogram

By Rusty Guinn | October 22, 2019 | 9 Comments

The NBA, Blizzard and others are in hot water after kowtowing to the Chinese government. America will have forgotten about both within weeks. But the awareness of just how long the CCP’s reach has become? That can’t be unseen.

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On The Great Jihad And Other Possible Futures

By Demonetized | September 26, 2019 | 9 Comments

ET contributor Demonetized channels his inner Paul Atreides to look at possible market futures – The Great Jihad, The Great Reset, and The Zombiefication of Everything.

Because at its core, “Dune” is all about narrative.

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Death in Slow Motion

By Rusty Guinn | September 19, 2019 | 4 Comments

The asset management industry has been dying a slow death for decades, but never seems to, you know, die.


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By Ben Hunt | September 17, 2019 | 4 Comments

As Bill Simmons used to say, “yep, these are my readers.” He meant it as a joke after a silly email, and that’s how I’ve used it in the past, too. But no silly or funny emails today. Just clear eyes and full hearts. Because … you know … can’t lose.

Yes, these are OUR readers, and this is OUR Pack, and this is OUR platform for thought and action in service to that Pack.

Watch from a distance if you like. But when you’re ready … join us.

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Does It Make a Sound?

By Rusty Guinn | August 13, 2019 | 27 Comments

Wherever self-determination and resistance to the encroaching power of the state and oligarchical institutions find expression, there should our full hearts be also.

And our full voices.

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The Country HOA and other Control Stories

By Rusty Guinn | August 9, 2019 | 1 Comment

There are some stories that we will want to believe no matter how much contrary evidence we find, and no matter how much we know that the story is bogus. And when these stories convey a sense of control? All bets are off.

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What You Call Love

By Demonetized | August 7, 2019 | 2 Comments

“What you call love was invented by guys like me. To sell Nylons.”

Every missionary has his own version of the Don Draper quote.

Politician: What you call values were invented by guys like me. To win power.

Fancy Asset Manager: What you call ESG was invented by guys like me. To gather assets.

The Sell-Side: What you call a rotation trade was invented by guys like me. To earn commissions.

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The Patsy, Revisited

By Rusty Guinn | July 24, 2019 | 10 Comments

We all know we’re supposed to figure out who the patsy at the table is, but somehow everyone we see ends up being a straw man. Maybe fine in normal markets, but in periods of stress? If you don’t know who owns it, you don’t know anything.

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So I got that goin’ for me

By Rusty Guinn | July 23, 2019 | 22 Comments

Everyone is right about buybacks. They’re good. They’re fine. They’re ethical. Oh, and they’ll be gone, too, if the industry doesn’t realize that it’s playing a metagame and not a parliamentary debate.

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The Problem with Brussels Sprouts

By Rusty Guinn | July 17, 2019 | 17 Comments

Some things are only palatable when they have been transformed into a cartoonish version of themselves. For financial professionals that raises a moral question: how much emphasis on the cartoon of expertise about us is too much?

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Mailbag: A Modern Vocational Curriculum

By Rusty Guinn | July 16, 2019 | 2 Comments

We get a lot of email and responses, but we REALLY got a lot about our comments on a curriculum that could replace the signaling-minded post-secondary degree industry. We publish them here.

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Every Shot Must Have a Purpose

By Demonetized | July 10, 2019 | 12 Comments

Golf, as the saying goes, is a good walk spoiled. But ET contributor Demonetized finds meaning in golf’s pathology of failure.

Swing mechanics and gimmicky shortcuts? Please. In golf and in investing, you’ve got one simple rule to improve your game.

Commit to the shot.

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ET Pack Gathering #1 – Northeast US

By Rusty Guinn | July 3, 2019 | 1 Comment

It’s the Pack Gathering, a small conclave of like-minded people interested in talking ideas and enjoying good, genuine company.

The first event will take place in our headquarters town of Fairfield, Connecticut. New England and Mid-Atlantic, this is your event.

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Narrative Means Never Having to Say You’re Sorry

By Rusty Guinn | June 27, 2019 | 1 Comment

Missionary activity isn’t always intended to mislead. But when it is, it is almost always aided by another sociopathic tendency – the complete unwillingness to admit error. What’s worse – we are practically designed to empower it.

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A Modern Vocational Curriculum

By Rusty Guinn | June 20, 2019 | 21 Comments

So if you COULD prepare most Americans for their jobs and lives in less than a year, how WOULD you? Well, we took a shot at answering just that, and I’m sure you’ll all agree completely and wholeheartedly with our conclusions.

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The Crossover Point

By Rusty Guinn | June 12, 2019 | 3 Comments

There’s a point in any human activity – investing, politics, religion, or business – where a thing we do together becomes a thing in-itself. It’s a point that changes our thinking and the moral questions we are forced to answer. Knowing where this point lies is in all our activities is important.

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truth and Truth

By Rusty Guinn | June 7, 2019 | 4 Comments

Great Truths can be important engines for social unity and shared identity. In the hands of some, however, they can become tools for obscuring actual truth – facts – in service of cynical use of the emotional memes attached to those Truths.

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Fellow Contrarians Unite!

By Rusty Guinn | June 1, 2019 | 4 Comments

We spend a lot of time on our trade ideas, and do a lot of hand-waving at what we believe that everyone else believes. It’s a core problem for investors, and one that can’t be avoided.

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A Holy Day

By Rusty Guinn | May 27, 2019 | 1 Comment

If Memorial Day is anything, it is a day for telling and re-telling stories about Full Hearts. Let me tell and re-tell you the story of Milton Lee Olive III.

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A Clear Eyes / Full Hearts Story

By Rusty Guinn | May 19, 2019 | 1 Comment

I like to think that we do a good job responding to our readers’ questions. If we have a weak spot, however, I know where it is. It is the unerring target of the question we receive most often: “What books would you recommend?” It is a completely fair question to ask. Our work references …

Read moreA Clear Eyes / Full Hearts Story