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Every day, Epsilon Theory runs the world's financial news through natural language processing-based cluster analysis to identify the most on-narrative stories. We scan for those with the most similarity to all other stories as well as those with the most interconnectivity to multiple different key topics.

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The Zeitgeist – April 19, 2021

By Ben Hunt | April 19, 2021 | 5 Comments

Here’s what we’re reading and working on this week at Epsilon Theory.

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Hot and Cold

By Rusty Guinn | March 23, 2021 | 24 Comments

Most of us are under the impression that a protracted conflict within China will increase national unity.

Not this time.

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A Change in the Water

By Ben Hunt | March 3, 2021 | 3 Comments

Increasingly, the common knowledge of our investment world – what everyone knows that everyone knows – is that inflation is a problem and you should be focused on it.

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Danish Food-Safety Expertise for the Win

By Ben Hunt | February 10, 2021 | 23 Comments

WHO leadership continues to be necessary part of the Chinese narrative machine.

It’s more than a disgrace. It’s more than a humiliation of the people who do good and important work through WHO.

It’s a betrayal of the entire world.

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Hammers and Nails

By Rusty Guinn | February 8, 2021 | 16 Comments

When we talk about bias, we usually think about a political bias. But the world of 2021 now supports persistent idiosyncratic biases and frames through which information is passed. How do we ensure that our information consumption habits account for this?

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For Leon Black is an Honorable Man

By Ben Hunt | January 26, 2021 | 7 Comments

O judgment! thou art fled to brutish beasts,
And men have lost their reason. Bear with me;
My heart is in the coffin there with the American dream that once was,
And I must pause till it come back to me.

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A Different Game

By Rusty Guinn | January 21, 2021 | 5 Comments

The light research poured into sentiment analysis misses one rather important fact: that’s the game we used to play. Today’s Fiat News is a different game altogether.

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“Suicide Bomber” vs suicide bomber

By Ben Hunt | December 29, 2020 | 19 Comments

On Christmas Day, Nashville was attacked by a suicide bomber terrorist. But not by a “Suicide Bomber”. Not by a “Terrorist”.

Why not? Because his terrorist goals didn’t fit neatly into a useful political narrative like “Antifa!” or “Proud Boys!”

Here’s what this looks like in the Narrative Machine.

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Russian Nesting Deals

By Rusty Guinn | December 3, 2020 | 4 Comments

Sometimes complicated is complicated because it has to be. But this nesting doll of a SPAC deal with Dyal (Neuberger Berman) IS weird and worthy of more than usual scrutiny, especially if you are an LP in one of these funds.

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Ten Times Faster Than The Sun’s Beams

By Ben Hunt | November 25, 2020 | 10 Comments

The Wall Street narrative machine is in overdrive to create a “Yay, Value!” rally here at year-end.

Like any effective advertising campaign, it will work. I’m not saying this rally isn’t real.

I’m saying that you should reconsider what “real” means.

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You Can’t Handle The Lie

By Rusty Guinn | November 6, 2020 | 35 Comments

Any news outlet that won’t let you see a lie does not work for you.

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We are all MMTers (Still)

By Rusty Guinn | October 22, 2020 | 12 Comments

Stimulus is dominating market news, and even with an election coming up is playing an outsized role in political news. So what is the current fiscal stimulus really about?

Maybe more importantly, what is it absolutely, definitely NOT about?

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How It Started. How It’s Going.

By Ben Hunt | October 20, 2020 | 11 Comments

Once Daryl Morey’s new idea became the common knowledge of the NBA – once everyone knows that everyone knows that the way to win NBA games is to maximize 3-point shots and lay-ups – then it became a permanent feature of the way professional basketball is played. It became an equilibrium.

It’s exactly the same with politics.

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The Frustrated Money Manager

By Ben Hunt | October 8, 2020 | 12 Comments

The frustrated money manager is almost always a smart, accomplished professional in his own field who believes VERY much in the existence of The Smart Money ™.

The frustrated money manager is almost always a liiiittttle bit on the make.

Like a Vatican cardinal.

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Scapegoating the Zeitgeist

By Ben Hunt | October 2, 2020 | 5 Comments

One day we will recognize the defining Zeitgeist of the post-GFC Obama/Trump years for what it is: an unparalleled transfer of wealth to the managerial class.

This Wall Street Journal article is not an attack on that system. It is a defense. It is telling you that the system is fine … we just need to do something about these bad apple CEOs.

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Why Am I Reading This Now?

By Ben Hunt | September 25, 2020 | 8 Comments

Yesterday, 5 GOP Senators wrote a letter to Netflix, saying that their plan to adapt Liu Cixin’s “The Three Body Problem” for TV/film amounted to “complicity” with the CCP and their horrific mistreatment of the Uyghurs.

Why am I reading this NOW?

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The UNITED States of America

By Ben Hunt | September 19, 2020 | 7 Comments

My RBG story …

I thought she’d be all about women’s rights and legal theory this and legal theory that. I was SO wrong.

RBG’s death is an enormous loss for the UNITED States of America.

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Many People Say

By Ben Hunt | September 16, 2020 | 27 Comments

The go-to move by sophists like Vox and Trump is to claim that “many people” are asserting their made-up premise that justifies an otherwise ludicrous position.

Why do they do this? Because it works.

Why does it work? Because common knowledge game. Because of the power of the crowd watching the crowd.

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The Game of Tesla

By Ben Hunt | September 3, 2020 | 4 Comments

Recent price action in Tesla is the Common Knowledge Game in action.

It is the power of the crowd watching the crowd. It is the power of – not what you think is true, and not what you think the crowd thinks is true – but of what the crowd thinks the crowd thinks is true.

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The Cartoon Put

By Rusty Guinn | September 1, 2020 | 13 Comments

Seeing cartoons made from data doesn’t give us license to ignore the underlying feature of the world being measured – it gives us a duty to cut through the abstractions obscuring that feature of the world.

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