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Epsilon Theory In Full

Epsilon Theory In Full


The soul of Epsilon Theory is our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. These are the print-and-take-home-for the weekend notes that made Epsilon Theory what it is today.

The Donkey of Guizhou

By Ben Hunt | July 7, 2014 | 0 Comments

There were no donkeys in Guizhou until an eccentric took one there by boat; but finding no use for it he set it loose in…

The Dude Abides: China in the Golden Age of Central Bankers

By Ben Hunt | July 1, 2014 | 1 Comment

Today, however, the Chinese State faces two existential threats, each stemming from or accelerated by the Great Recession and Western policy responses to that crisis of market confidence.

First, QE and other “emergency” Western monetary policies of the past five years threaten the grand political unification of Deng Xiaoping from without. 

Second, massive wealth inequality and concentration driven largely by those same monetary policies threaten it from within.

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Long Term Parking

By Ben Hunt | June 16, 2014 | 0 Comments

And I don’t want to hear about the freaking economy, either! Sil, break it down for ’em. What two businesses have traditionally been recession-proof since time immemorial?

Certain aspects of show business … and our thing.

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Risk Analysis in the Golden Age of Central Bankers

By Ben Hunt | June 9, 2014 | 0 Comments

When I was a little kid we had a sand box. It was a quicksand box. I was an only child … eventually. – Steven…

The Minsky Moment Meme

By Ben Hunt | June 8, 2014 | 0 Comments

That’s not how it works. That’s not how any of this works. – Esurance “Beatrice” commercial There’s a wonderful commercial in heavy rotation on American television,…

When Does the Story Break?

By Ben Hunt | May 25, 2014 | 0 Comments

Margaret Bourke-White took this photo of the Garment District in 1930. Every single person on the street is wearing a hat. How did THAT behavior change over time? How did the common knowledge that All Men Wear Hats change?

Answer: the Common Knowledge Game.

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Equity Volatility-of-Volatility Falls to All-Time Low

By Ben Hunt | May 12, 2014 | 0 Comments

1M implied volatility on the VIX fell to an all-time low last week. Generally speaking, this means that options on short-term market volatility increasing have…

All that Glitters

By Ben Hunt | May 9, 2014 | 0 Comments

I’ve received a lot of questions over the past few weeks about Russia and the Ukraine, and why I don’t include this flashpoint in my…

The Risk Trilogy

By Ben Hunt | May 4, 2014 | 0 Comments

A trilogy is a pretty abstract notion. You can apply it to almost any three things.  – Jonathan Demme Mozart: So then you like it?…

Core Curriculum

By Ben Hunt | April 28, 2014 | 0 Comments

I distributed this Epsilon Theory reading list last summer, but it never made it to the website. Given the volume of requests I receive for…

The Business of Epsilon Theory

By Ben Hunt | April 23, 2014 | 0 Comments

I started the Epsilon Theory project nine months ago with the publication of a “Manifesto” and an email to a few hundred friends and colleagues.…

The Adaptive Genius of Rigged Markets

By Ben Hunt | April 20, 2014 | 0 Comments

Same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was – Talking Heads, “Once in…

Beta Earthquake

By Ben Hunt | April 13, 2014 | 0 Comments

One of the things I like to keep my eye on when I’m puzzling out what’s going on in the market are the specific company…

The King is Dead. Long Live the King.

By Ben Hunt | April 7, 2014 | 0 Comments

Le roi est mort, vive le roi! – French proclamation as coffin of old king is placed into burial vault of Saint Denis Basilica. The…

Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World

By Ben Hunt | March 30, 2014 | 0 Comments

Apocalypse Now (1979), based on “Heart of Darkness” by Joseph Conrad Kurtz:  Did they say why, Willard, why they want to terminate my command? Willard:…

Two Shifting Narratives

By Ben Hunt | March 24, 2014 | 0 Comments

Two brief observations on incipient shifts in powerful Narratives … First, China. The pleasant charade that recent currency intervention was nothing more than an effort…

Surely You Can’t Be Serious

By Ben Hunt | March 20, 2014 | 0 Comments

The Secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that you’ve got it made. These are my principles, and if you…


By Ben Hunt | March 16, 2014 | 0 Comments

Panopticon schematic, 1791 Michel Foucault, 1975 © Camera Press The Panopticon: a new mode of obtaining power of mind over mind, in a quantity hitherto…


By Ben Hunt | March 9, 2014 | 0 Comments

Question: Mr. President, a clarification if I may. The people who were blocking the Ukrainian Army units in Crimea were wearing uniforms that strongly resembled…

Two Quick Points

By Ben Hunt | March 6, 2014 | 0 Comments

Two quick Epsilon Theory points before the jobs report tomorrow. First, remember the Goldilocks Narrative of the post-Great Recession Era…slow growth keeps the Fed in play, so…