All Epsilon Theory Content
Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory since 2013, an archive of more than 1,000 evergreen notes.
On hard problems, lazy XKCD references, the myth of superhuman AI, and valley grammar.
If political parties in Western democracies were stocks, we’d be talking today about the structural bear market that has gripped that sector. Show me any country that’s had an election in the past 24 months, and I’ll show you at least one formerly big-time status quo political party that has been crushed.
My view is that we are heading into a far more ‘interesting’ era of flash crashes of confused, or deliberately misled, algorithms.
Starcraft mastery from AI, risky language, and the map of physics. Also Zen vs. Tantra, because why not?
Almost as much as we love stock discussions, we love talking about our favorite fund managers. These discussions are unfortunately almost always a complete waste of time.
On DARPA explainer videos, Burning Man invocations, and the impact of bad weather and high taxes on AI talent pools.
Many of the gaps in our knowledge are the result of our insistence on accepting our priors and using technology to answer questions we see as new. But what if we could develop techniques to challenge those priors with new questions?
We meet with our fund managers and financial advisers with a goal in mind. But we always end up talking stocks. If you insist on buying the tank, they’ll sell you a tank, folks.
An introduction to Jeremy Radcliffe, the Rabbit Hole and why it seems like the best asset management executives would be far happier as general managers of sports teams.
If questioning everything you ever thought you knew about science sends you into a downward spiral of crippling anxiety, this may not be the Rabbit Hole for you.
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
Oh, we all use index funds. ETFs. We all avoid the evils of acting trading, sure. But in the end, we are all active managers, friends. Yes, you, too.
The best part about this job, other than being recognized in random bars by 50-year old financial advisors who are always good to buy me…
Part 1 of the Things that Matter / Things that Don’t series. Having a World View means having a center – a core set of philosophies about how the world works, what is objectively true and false, and what actually matters.
George Soros has a great line, one that I’ve stolen many times: “I’m not predicting. I’m observing.” We really don’t have a crystal ball, and it really is a dumb idea to pretend that we do. But what’s not dumb is to keep your eyes and ears open, observing both what the world is telling you (playing the cards) and what other market participants are telling you (playing the players), and reacting accordingly. That’s the heart of tactical investing.
Over the past few weeks, I’ve had a fight with my wife and email spats with two of my best and oldest friends. In each case, I didn’t recognize that we weren’t really talking about what I thought we were talking about, and by the time I did recognize the real issues, I was already too far down the path of combative Ben to care.
In which Ben introduces the concept of fiat news, which is to “real news” what fiat currencies like dollars and euros and yen are to “real money” like a gold coin.
We often write about Common Knowledge – the game of markets. It’s time to talk about how to play it. So how can you be a better game-player? What are some specific strategies one can adopt to play the game of markets more effectively?
There are three questions I’d like to answer in this Epsilon Theory note: what did The Narrative Machine tell us about the market immediately before and immediately after the November 8 election, what am I preparing for now as an investor, and what am I preparing for now as a citizen? I’m giddy about the first, quietly confident about the second, and pretty darn depressed about the third. Could be worse, I suppose.
Every dog needs a job, and every investment does, too. No single dog can be all things to all people, and neither can a single investment. Nor can any pack of dogs accomplish anything and everything you like. The biggest mistake people make when they get a dog is trying to make the dog fit into the life they wish they led, rather than the life they actually lead.