All Epsilon Theory Content
Everything we have published at Epsilon Theory including our long-form content, a library of hundreds of pieces written by Ben, Rusty and others over the course of the last 5+ years. Plus, short-form pieces for those without the time (or attention span) for classic Epsilon Theory notes.
“Music, this complex and mysterious act, precise as algebra and vague as a dream, this art made out of mathematics and air, is simply the…
“Shape clay into a vessel; It is the space within that makes it useful. Cut doors and windows for a room; It is the holes…
“But Achilles, weeping, quickly slipping away from his companions, sat on the shore of the gray salt sea, and looked out to the wine-dark sea.”…
“You say that we go round the sun. If we went round the moon it would not make a pennyworth of difference to me or…
In some periods of history gold is money. In other periods of history gold is not. But gold is always something, and that something is defined by the Common Knowledge of the day.
Today our Common Knowledge is that gold is an insurance policy against central bank error.
A review of current market informational structure one week post the June 19th FOMC announcement. epsilon-theory-matrix-reloaded-seeing-markets-as-informational-structures-june-27-2013.pdf (295KB)
We are all impaled on the crook of conditioning. – James Dean (1931 – 1955) This note is a sequel to my letter from two weeks…
A review of Narrative formation efforts on June 21st to support the market. epsilon-theory-the-narrative-battle-is-joined-june-21-2013.pdf (227KB)
An initial examination of the informational inflection point generated by the June 19th FOMC announcement. epsilon-theory-whats-the-opposite-of-green-shoots-june-20-2013.pdf (235KB)
A review of Narrative formation immediately after the June 19th FOMC announcement. PDF Download (Paid Membership Required): http://www.epsilontheory.com/download/15677/
The first ET note focused on Information Theory.
From the classic Paul Newman movie, Cool Hand Luke, as the Captain administers Luke’s punishment in the prison yard for yet another escape attempt: Captain: You…
Our times require an investment and risk management perspective that is fluent in econometrics but is equally grounded in game theory, history, and behavioral analysis. Epsilon Theory is my attempt to lay the foundation for such a perspective.
An initial examination of the informational inflection point generated by the Nov. 18th Boehner/Reid press conference. epsilon-theory-friday-was-an-important-day-november-18-2012.pdf (247 KB)
Early research on the relationship between informational surfaces and structural market change. epsilon-theory-dont-mess-with-mister-in-between.pdf (244 KB)
An analysis of systematic error in BLS data and its role in the Narrative regarding US labor conditions. epsilon-theory-jack-welch-was-right-october-29-2012.pdf (219 KB)
Early notes on investment as an exercise in decision-making under uncertainty. epsilon-theory-donald-rumsfeld-and-risk-management-october-7-2012.pdf (197 KB)
Growing political fragmentation in Europe and its structural consequences for markets. epsilon-theory-hello-darkness-my-old-friend-september-29-2012.pdf (123 KB)
An initial analysis of the Sept. 15th FOMC announcement of open-ended QE. epsilon-theory-dude-wheres-my-financial-repression-september-15-2012.pdf (191 KB)
Early notes on importance of Common Knowledge game in understanding market behavior. epsilon-theory-why-do-words-matter-so-much-august-30-2012.pdf (753 KB) Test: epsilon-theory-why-do-words-matter-so-much-august-30-2012.pdf (753 KB)