Access the Powerpoint slides of this month’s ET Pro monitors here.
Access the PDF version of the ET Pro monitor slides here.
Access the underlying Excel data here.
- As we noted last month, the cohesiveness around a “Fed must continue to act” narrative remains at moderate levels.
- We also think the common knowledge of excessively slow rate cuts by the Fed – again, not the personal intellectual belief in the mistake, but a belief that the market believes that the market believes it – continues to exist:
- We think the sharp drop in sentiment attached to this coverage is partially reflective of the language expressing this view.
- We also think from the language of some articles that it reflects a growing common knowledge of the limited real-world impact of this stimulus.
- Importantly, however, the level of attention on central bank narratives has faded rapidly:
- Common knowledge has emerged that other investors are more focused on trade, IPO market/growth issues and election politics.
- We think this means that any negative surprise on continued easing expectations could have a more dramatic impact than investors / markets have discounted.
Narrative Attention Map
Fiat News Index
The Longer-Term Lessons of the Repo Turmoil [Bloomberg]