Category: Note
Equity Volatility-of-Volatility Falls to All-Time Low
1M implied volatility on the VIX fell to an all-time low last week. Generally speaking, this means that options on short-term market volatility increasing have…
All that Glitters
I’ve received a lot of questions over the past few weeks about Russia and the Ukraine, and why I don’t include this flashpoint in my…
The Risk Trilogy
A trilogy is a pretty abstract notion. You can apply it to almost any three things. – Jonathan Demme Mozart: So then you like it?…
Core Curriculum
I distributed this Epsilon Theory reading list last summer, but it never made it to the website. Given the volume of requests I receive for…
The Business of Epsilon Theory
I started the Epsilon Theory project nine months ago with the publication of a “Manifesto” and an email to a few hundred friends and colleagues.…
The Adaptive Genius of Rigged Markets
Same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same as it ever was – Talking Heads, “Once in…
Beta Earthquake
One of the things I like to keep my eye on when I’m puzzling out what’s going on in the market are the specific company…
The King is Dead. Long Live the King.
Le roi est mort, vive le roi! – French proclamation as coffin of old king is placed into burial vault of Saint Denis Basilica. The…
Hollow Men, Hollow Markets, Hollow World
Apocalypse Now (1979), based on “Heart of Darkness” by Joseph Conrad Kurtz: Did they say why, Willard, why they want to terminate my command? Willard:…
Two Shifting Narratives
Two brief observations on incipient shifts in powerful Narratives … First, China. The pleasant charade that recent currency intervention was nothing more than an effort…
Surely You Can’t Be Serious
The Secret of life is honesty and fair dealing. If you can fake that you’ve got it made. These are my principles, and if you…
Panopticon
Rosebud
Question: Mr. President, a clarification if I may. The people who were blocking the Ukrainian Army units in Crimea were wearing uniforms that strongly resembled…
Two Quick Points
Two quick Epsilon Theory points before the jobs report tomorrow. First, remember the Goldilocks Narrative of the post-Great Recession Era…slow growth keeps the Fed in play, so…
The Power of Why, Exhibit 4,512 in a Continuing Series
No man is an Iland, intire of it selfe; Every man is a peece of the Continent, a part of the maine; If a Clod…
Don’t Fear the Reaper
Buck Finemann, seventy two years old. Cantankerous old geezer. No-one liked him much, but they allowed him to play poker with them once a week…
Goldilocks and the Dog That Didn’t Bark
Det. Gregory: Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention? Holmes: To the curious incident of the dog in…
Oh Stewardess, I Speak Jive
Instead of a long-form note this Sunday, I thought I’d write a briefer note in advance of this Friday’s jobs report. I’ll be back next…
Yen Strengthens Below 102
There was a clear short-term Narrative developed in the financial media last week creating a focal point at 102 in the Yen/USD exchange rate. The…