Access the Powerpoint slides of this month’s ET Pro monitors here.
Access the PDF version of the ET Pro monitor slides here.
Access the underlying Excel data here.
- Any narrative about a US Recession at this point is complacent and confident about its absence as a risk to equity markets.
- The sentiment of articles has risen sharply – as cohesion and attention have fallen – to pre-Summer levels before recession concerns had become a somewhat mainstream media topic.
- Even more than in prior periods, focus of even US markets commentary relating to recession has instead focused on recession risks in foreign markets, where the narrative is not quite as complacent.
- The result is a muddled narrative structure with some lingering concern about German manufacturing, scattered emerging markets worries and articles asserting that the risk of American recession has passed.
- We have no fundamental view on recession risks but believe the complacency may create asymmetric opportunities for investors and allocators with more substantive concerns about the US economy.