US Recession Monitor – 8.31.2019

Access the Powerpoint slides of this month’s ET Pro monitors here.

Access the PDF version of the ET Pro monitor slides here.

Access the underlying Excel data here.

  • Given the amount of related commentary we have observed anecdotally in financial news coverage, this month we began explicitly tracking narratives about US recessions. We have produced historical values through January of this year.
  • As you might imagine, recession narratives are caught up amid other narratives, such as central bank policy and trade and tariff narratives.
  • Understanding their relative attention, however, can help a great deal toward understanding the nature of each respective narrative structure.
  • From our initial analysis we have come to believe a few things:
    • If there is a recession narrative in the US, it is that the China trade war is would be the proximate cause, and that central bank action would be the remedy.
    • Whatever narrative exists, however, is not cohesive. There is no agreement or common knowledge about a US recession.
    • Furthermore, the narrative structure is only moderately high attention, and certainly takes a back seat to direct trade and Fed coverage.
  • Whether they prove to be correct or not, everyone knows that everyone knows that the Fed and tariff tweets will determine asset prices for now, not economic fundamentals.

Narrative Map

Source: Quid, Epsilon Theory

Narrative Attention Map

Source: Quid, Epsilon Theory

Narrative Attention

Narrative Cohesion

Fiat News Index

Narrative Sentiment

Key Articles

EOG Resources profit misses on weaker commodities prices [Reuters]

Kudlow Pushes Back on Recession, Says U.S.-China Calls Positive [Bloomberg]

New recession warning: The rich aren’t spending [CNBC]

Trade woes are slowing U.S. economy, U.S. budget experts say [Reuters]

Trump’s tax cut isn’t giving the US economy the boost it needs [CNBC]