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Category: In Summary

Yeah, It’s Still Water (follow-up)

You know, I was a big fan of stock buybacks back when I was running a fund, and I still think that most of the macro reasons to oppose stock buybacks …
Ben Hunt November 1, 2019
0 Comments

Domino Theory

I'm not THAT into dominoes, but I am into figuring out what's next for changes in the Fed narrative and how that impacts markets. More evidence that…
Ben Hunt October 15, 2019
0 Comments

Coal Mine, Meet Canary

I think these emergency actions in the repo market – and to be sure, these ARE emergency actions – and now the expansion of the balance sheet to g…
Ben Hunt October 8, 2019
1 Comment

The Wages of Populism

There are two necessary narratives for EM investing to work: 1) Yay, EM growth! 2) Yay, EM property rights! Both of these narratives are broken, whi…
Ben Hunt September 30, 2019
0 Comments

The Old Man and the Sea

The line between the anchor and the boat has been cut. The line between the fisherman and the fish has been cut. Everyone knows that everyone knows t…
Ben Hunt September 25, 2019
0 Comments

Hello Darkness My Old Friend

Our most impactful structural attribute of narrative is Attention – the level of “drum-beating” for a certain narrative relative to all of the O…
Ben Hunt September 16, 2019
0 Comments

The US Recession That Wasn’t

I’ve never seen a US-oriented macro query that yielded more non-US narrative clusters. Also, the past few days in markets have felt like 2008-2009,…
Ben Hunt September 10, 2019
0 Comments

Two Things I Think I Think

First, I think I think that the "cover story" for the Fed - that they act to help the real economy - has evaporated. Second, I think I think Trump ha…
Ben Hunt August 26, 2019
1 Comment

I Was Shook

The news about Jeffrey Epstein’s death on Saturday hit me hard, as did the escalation in the Hong Kong protests over the weekend, as did the collaps…
Ben Hunt August 14, 2019
0 Comments

The Second Horseman

The First Horseman was a tightening Fed, and markets suffered its wrath in Q4 last year. Markets are now suffering the Second Horseman, as China “s…
Ben Hunt August 5, 2019
4 Comments

The Dog That Didn’t Bark

I've been looking at narrative maps for a long time now, and I don't think I've ever seen as complacent a market narrative as what our Narrative Machi…
Ben Hunt July 29, 2019
0 Comments

They’re. Not. Even. Pretending. Anymore.

I’ve met Rick Rieder and Larry Fink a couple of times, but I don’t know them. At all. Maybe they’re decent guys. Maybe they really believe in th…
Ben Hunt July 22, 2019
0 Comments

Get Up and Dance

That line about dancing by Chuck Prince is the perfect quote for any age and any asset class where institutions intentionally take risks they know are…
Ben Hunt July 15, 2019
2 Comments

You Are Here, June 2019

Yes, we’re still in a zeitgeist of Central Bank Omnipotence, where deflationary shocks simply can’t take the market down for much or for long. Tha…
Ben Hunt July 8, 2019
0 Comments

ETNA Research Update

The major update in today’s research deck is a simulation of a market neutral / absolute return strategy using our narrative-driven S&P 500 sector u…
Ben Hunt July 1, 2019
0 Comments

Epsilon Theory Narrative Alpha (ETNA)

US Sector Strategies Presentation Deck (downloadable PDF) For ET Professional subscribers only.
Ben Hunt June 18, 2019
0 Comments

In the Flow – Chef’s Knives

It's easy to get waaaay too precious when it comes to professional kitchens, whether we're talking about restaurants or a trading desk. But credit de…
Ben Hunt May 28, 2019
9 Comments

In the Flow – You Are Here, May 2019

Each month we update our five narrative Monitors and summarize the main findings from each. The big reveal for May? There’s a tremendous amount of…
Ben Hunt May 13, 2019

In the Flow – Wage Growth, Groucho Marx Edition

Wage stagnation in 2016 was actually much worse than you were told. Did this make a difference in the Midwestern states that swung the election, in th…
Ben Hunt May 6, 2019

In the Flow – It’s Toasted

When Donald Trump tells you that there’s no inflation, that up is down and black is white, that monetary policy … It’s toasted! … you’ve got…
Ben Hunt April 30, 2019
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