Category: In Summary

You know, I was a big fan of stock buybacks back when I was running a fund, and I still think that most of the macro reasons to oppose stock buybacks …

I'm not THAT into dominoes, but I am into figuring out what's next for changes in the Fed narrative and how that impacts markets. More evidence that…

I think these emergency actions in the repo market – and to be sure, these ARE emergency actions – and now the expansion of the balance sheet to g…

There are two necessary narratives for EM investing to work: 1) Yay, EM growth! 2) Yay, EM property rights! Both of these narratives are broken, whi…

The line between the anchor and the boat has been cut. The line between the fisherman and the fish has been cut. Everyone knows that everyone knows t…

Our most impactful structural attribute of narrative is Attention – the level of “drum-beating” for a certain narrative relative to all of the O…

I’ve never seen a US-oriented macro query that yielded more non-US narrative clusters. Also, the past few days in markets have felt like 2008-2009,…

First, I think I think that the "cover story" for the Fed - that they act to help the real economy - has evaporated. Second, I think I think Trump ha…

The news about Jeffrey Epstein’s death on Saturday hit me hard, as did the escalation in the Hong Kong protests over the weekend, as did the collaps…

The First Horseman was a tightening Fed, and markets suffered its wrath in Q4 last year. Markets are now suffering the Second Horseman, as China “s…

I've been looking at narrative maps for a long time now, and I don't think I've ever seen as complacent a market narrative as what our Narrative Machi…

I’ve met Rick Rieder and Larry Fink a couple of times, but I don’t know them. At all. Maybe they’re decent guys. Maybe they really believe in th…

That line about dancing by Chuck Prince is the perfect quote for any age and any asset class where institutions intentionally take risks they know are…

Yes, we’re still in a zeitgeist of Central Bank Omnipotence, where deflationary shocks simply can’t take the market down for much or for long. Tha…

The major update in today’s research deck is a simulation of a market neutral / absolute return strategy using our narrative-driven S&P 500 sector u…