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Category: In Summary

The PPP Narrative for Asset Managers

A narrative backlash is developing against RIAs and other asset managers that took PPP money. Fair or not, this narrative is pure red meat for anti-W…
Ben Hunt May 28, 2020

Children of Men

Can a free world survive an endemic COVID-19, where there's no vaccine but a chronic global affliction? I used to think yes. Now I think no.
Ben Hunt May 21, 2020
2 Comments

Everything You Always Wanted to Know About CDS … But Were Afraid to Ask

I know it's forbidden to say this, but I like Woody Allen movies. If you've never seen "Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Sex* ... But Were A…
Ben Hunt May 12, 2020
0 Comments

The Bear Stearns Bounce

In 2008, the market came roaring back after Bear Stearns was sold for parts to Jamie Dimon. Why? Because narrative. Because with Bear's elimination, "…
Ben Hunt April 23, 2020
2 Comments

Pandemic Playbook Notes – 4/7

We provide an update on our thinking about narrative structure as of April 7, 2020. In short, there is an emerging "we flattened the curve" narrative.…
Rusty Guinn April 7, 2020

But Barry Sternlicht Says …

I honestly have no idea what the world is going to look like in six months! I’m sure I’m not alone. And if you honestly have no idea what the worl…
Ben Hunt April 1, 2020
0 Comments

Pandemic Playbook Notes – 3/23

We update our thinking based on the framework we published on 3/17, especially in two areas with active changes in narrative structure: fiscal and mon…
Rusty Guinn March 23, 2020

Pandemic Playbook – 3/17

After a few weeks of historic market volatility, we reexamine the framework we would use to think about the implications of Covid-19 and the mitigatio…
Rusty Guinn March 17, 2020

First-Level Foolishness

There's a lot of first-level thinking going on, and navigating the transition from uncertain markets back to risky markets means avoiding their pitfal…
Rusty Guinn March 12, 2020
2 Comments

Minimax Regret

All of our thinking about CV-19 is wrong and all of our decision-making about CV-19 is wrong because we believe we’re getting “information”, whe…
Ben Hunt March 10, 2020
0 Comments

Covid-19 Cargo Cults

Quantitative analysis is all well and good, but when someone starts peddling you charts or measures when you KNOW that the underlying data is unknowab…
Rusty Guinn February 27, 2020
5 Comments

Not Gonna Lie

Not gonna lie ... this virus got us in the first half. But if we prepare and strengthen our healthcare systems NOW, particularly in cities like Jaka…
Ben Hunt February 18, 2020
0 Comments

That Escalated Quickly

Two narratives jumped sharply in structural attention scores over the past few months. One is something we've already written a lot about - Inflation…
Ben Hunt February 10, 2020
2 Comments

The Deflation to Inflation Playbook

The use of central banks to monetize vast new fiscal spending programs in every developed nation on Earth – under the guise of CB-financed Green Bon…
Ben Hunt January 25, 2020
0 Comments

The Worm Turns

Media attention to an inflation narrative turned dramatically in December, and I see signs of it continuing to accelerate to the upside here in Januar…
Ben Hunt January 14, 2020
6 Comments

The Long Now

Every year, I try to put together a series of notes that captures where I think we are, from both a political and investment perspective. This year, t…
Ben Hunt December 30, 2019
0 Comments

New on ET Pro: the Debt and Credit Monitor

We're relaunching a Debt and Credit narrative Monitor on ET Pro, as we've made some advances in formulating search queries to capture a meaningful sig…
Ben Hunt December 16, 2019
0 Comments

The Sillier Season

The heart of narrative-world is quivering without a stable rhythm of beat of any sort. It's an expansion of the Silly Season I wrote about in November…
Ben Hunt December 2, 2019
0 Comments

Sneak Preview

A sneak preview of the FT Markets piece to be published later this week, with my original language and the math on Microsoft's 10-K. We’re never go…
Ben Hunt November 18, 2019
1 Comment

Silly Season

There’s something weird happening in narrative-world, and I’ve been trying to figure out what it means since we published our monthly Narrative Mo…
Ben Hunt November 11, 2019
0 Comments
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