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Category: Game Theory

Sheep Logic

In Part 6 of the Notes from the Field Series, Ben observes that we think we are wolves, living by the logic of the pack. In truth we are sheep, living…
Ben Hunt October 5, 2017
1 Comment

I’m Not Predicting, I’m Observing

George Soros has a great line, one that I’ve stolen many times: “I’m not predicting. I’m observing.” We really don’t have a crystal ball, …
Ben Hunt March 2, 2017
0 Comments

The Evolution of Competition

Over the past few weeks, I’ve had a fight with my wife and email spats with two of my best and oldest friends. In each case, I didn’t recognize th…
Ben Hunt February 7, 2017
0 Comments

The Art of the Probe

We often write about Common Knowledge - the game of markets. It's time to talk about how to play it. So how can you be a better game-player? What are …
Ben Hunt December 8, 2016
0 Comments

Virtue Signaling, or … Why Clinton is in Trouble

Don’t get me wrong. I’m thoroughly despondent about the calcification, mendacity, and venal corruption that I think four years of Clinton™ will …
Ben Hunt September 29, 2016
19 Comments

Dungeons & Dragons

On episode six of the Epsilon Theory podcast, host Dr. Ben Hunt is joined again by Salient deputy chief investment officer Rusty Guinn to talk…

Ben Hunt July 27, 2016

Pressure and Time

Red: [narrating] In 1966, Andy Dufresne escaped from Shawshank prison. All they found of him was a muddy set of prison clothes, a bar of…

Ben Hunt June 7, 2016
0 Comments

The Introduction

In episode one of the Epsilon Theory podcast, hosts Dr. Ben Hunt and Jeremy Radcliffe discuss the origins of Epsilon Theory, how Dr. Hunt came…

Ben Hunt June 7, 2016

1914 is (still) the New Black

There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen. – Vladimir Lenin (1870 – 1924)  In 1914, Europe had arrived at…

Ben Hunt July 6, 2015
0 Comments

1914 is the New Black

Man in Black: All right. Where is the poison? The battle of wits has begun. It ends when you decide and we both drink, and…

Ben Hunt June 29, 2015
0 Comments

Inherent Vice

Want to get hours of your week as a professional investor back? Want to reduce pointless portfolio activity and bad use of time with clients? Stop pre…
Ben Hunt June 22, 2015
0 Comments

Sometimes a Cigar is Just a Cigar

More on Information Theory.
Ben Hunt May 22, 2015
0 Comments

It’s Still Not About the Nail

Reader reaction to the March 31 Epsilon Theory note, “It’s Not About the Nail”, was probably the strongest and most positive for any note to…

Ben Hunt April 14, 2015
0 Comments

It’s Not About the Nail

Do, or do not. There is no try.” – Yoda, “Star Wars: Episode V – The Empire Strikes Back” (1980) I see it all perfectly;…

Ben Hunt March 31, 2015
0 Comments

Why Take a Chance?

Vinny Forlano: He won’t talk. Stone is a good kid. Stand-up guy, just like his old man. That’s the way I see it. Vincent Borelli:…

Ben Hunt February 24, 2015
0 Comments

The Clash of Civilizations

Thomas Cole, “The Course of Empire: Destruction” (1836) In the emerging world of ethnic conflict and civilizational clash, Western belief in the universality of Western…

Ben Hunt December 29, 2014
0 Comments

Signs and Portents

Young nanny: Look at me, Damien! It’s all for you.   [she jumps off a roof, hanging herself]  – “The Omen” (1976)   When one has…

Ben Hunt December 1, 2014
0 Comments

Mike Tyson: Master Game Theorist

Everyone has a plan until they get hit in the mouth. – Mike Tyson My long-term strategy turned into a 12-hour strategy. – “Survivor” contestant…

Ben Hunt November 6, 2014
0 Comments

Calvin the Super Genius

People think it must be fun to be a super genius, but they don’t realize how hard it is to put up with all the…

Ben Hunt October 14, 2014
0 Comments

The Game of Thrones and the Game of Markets

Two items for the mid-week. First, an invitation to attend a Salient Webinar I’ll be presenting next Thursday, September 18th at 2pm ET, titled: “The Game…

Ben Hunt September 11, 2014
0 Comments
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