Many of the gaps in our knowledge are the result of our insistence on accepting our priors and using technology to answer questions we see as new. But what if we could develop techniques to challenge those priors with new questions?
In which Ben introduces the concept of fiat news, which is to “real news” what fiat currencies like dollars and euros and yen are to “real money” like a gold coin.
There are three questions I’d like to answer in this Epsilon Theory note: what did the Narrative Machine tell us about the market immediately before and immediately after the November 8 election, what am I preparing for now as an investor, and what am I preparing for now as a citizen? I’m giddy about the first, quietly confident about the second, and pretty darn depressed about the third. Could be worse, I suppose.
Alex: There was me, that is Alex, and my three droogs, that is Pete, Georgie, and Dim, and we sat in the Korova Milkbar trying to make up our rassoodocks what to do with the evening. The Korova Milkbar sold milk-plus, milk plus vellocet or synthemesc or drencrom, which is what we were drinking. This …
The world made two discoveries last week. Everyone is aware of the first discovery – that ISIS is not “a junior varsity team” but an able protagonist in what Pope Francis quite rightly calls “a piecemeal third World War”. Very few are aware of the second discovery – the existence of a polynomial-time algorithm to …
Dr. Evil: Gentlemen, it has come to my attention that a breakaway Russian Republic called Kreplachistan will be transferring a nuclear warhead to the United Nations in a few days. Here’s the plan. We get the warhead and we hold the world ransom for…one MILLION dollars! Number Two: Don’t you think we should ask for …
The more I practice, the luckier I get.– Gary Player (b. 1935) Luck is the residue of design.– Branch Rickey (1881 – 1965) I’ve found that you don’t need to wear a necktie if you can hit.– Ted Williams (1918 – 2002) They say that nobody is perfect. Then they say that practice makes perfect. I …
For the life of me, I don’t understand the debate [over the NSA metadata program]. – Jeb Bush, February 18, 2015 The Central Intelligence Agency played a crucial role in helping the Justice Department develop technology that scans data from thousands of US cellphones at a time, part of a secret high-tech alliance between the …
One of the best parts of authoring Epsilon Theory is the correspondence I get from readers. For the past few months, however, I’ve been frustrated by my inability to respond to every writer with the same attention and thoughtfulness evidenced by their emails. Between my day job and the effort each Epsilon Theory note requires, …
I never noticed it until ‘Twas gone – the narrow copseWhere now the woodman lopsThe last of the willows with his bill – Edward Thomas, “First Known When Lost” (1917) Dave Bowman: Open the pod bay doors, HAL. Hal: I’m sorry, Dave. I’m afraid I can’t do that. Dave Bowman: What’s the problem? Hal: I …