Hot Rocks
A portfolio is, after all, a vessel. It is a container for our financial investments, and what we leave OUT of that container is every bit as importan…
Month: August 2018
Mailbag: Letter From a Birmingham Museum
Catching up on correspondence with some notable reader emails. In this edition, we take a look at some reader responses to the recent note ‘Letters …
Mailbag: Wall of Worry
Climbing a wall of worry is the least understood and most powerful crowd behavior of a bull market. When there’s no real information, we create it b…
Epsilon Theory Core Curriculum, Vol. 1
The OG Epsilon Theory reading list, now 4 years old. Luckily the classics never change. (Ed. Note: This is true, Ben, but not an excuse to keep quotin…
Men Who Wear Hats
Teaser: What do Tesla, crypto, and men-who-wear-hats all have in common? They’re all driven by fashion, which is another word for the Common Knowledge game.
The Pension Cartoon
Nowhere is the cartoonification of politics and investing more prominent than in PensionWorld, where the need to appear to do something is often more …
Second Foundation
Isaac Asimov’s Foundation Trilogy isn’t just science fiction. It’s a blueprint. It’s a blueprint for how civilization falls, or a culture fail…
The Next Slide
The true face of Futurism is one part technological dependence, and two parts obsession with the technologies we create, instead of the people they we…
Death in the Afternoon
In which Ben discovers that losing a hive of bees, like losing sociopathic sheep, industrially inefficient chickens, or really any farm animal, teache…
Mailbag: One Ring to Rule Them All
In which readers ask how to apportion the market effects of Fed jawboning and Fed asset purchases and sales (to the extent that the latter is not just…
Michael Cohen’s Flip Is a Big Narrative Deal
In tangible terms, I’m not sure that Michael Cohen’s flip on DJT has done much to change anything, as much as the left would like it do. From a Na…
Mailbag: Rural vs. Urban Divide
In which we reference an interesting article from Colin Woodward arguing against Common Knowledge of the rural/urban divide in the United States.
Tesla Rekt
We write about the Common Knowledge Game a lot in Epsilon Theory, because it's the central game of crowds and narratives.
Common knowledge is somethi…
Notes from the Road: Bayes and the Boreen
In Part 1 of his Notes from the Road series, Rusty takes us to Ireland. There he begins an exploration of path-dependence and priors in our thinking a…
Grant Williams “In Conversation” with Ben Hunt
Well, you know you’ve really made it in this business when Grant Williams shows up on your doorstep with his crew. What an honor to…
Things Fall Apart (Part 1)
Part 1 of a three-part series on what it means to have a polarized electorate and a monolithic market. Today's note: the Age of Ridiculousness and the…