It Was You, Charley
July 16, 2018·0 comments·three body alpha
Professional advisers followed every principle of sound investing: diversification, discipline, rigorous process, optimal risk management. Their clients' portfolios looked perfect on paper. And yet a randomly selected S&P 500 stock in 2009 would have beaten most of their carefully constructed decisions. The gap between what should work and what did wasn't a glitch. It was the new baseline.
- The diversification paradox is quantifiable. From 2009 onward, nearly every decision to move money away from US equities reduced returns, often by massive margins. A 70% chance of outperforming global indices by picking a random stock wasn't an anomaly. It was the ten-year track record.
- The problem isn't that advisers made mistakes. It's that the outcome punished the right approach. Following process-driven, informed decision-making hurt client wealth relative to the dumb thing clients would have done without help. This creates a credibility crisis that no historical analysis can fix.
- Value investing, normally episodic in returns, has become persistently hostile. Nearly a decade of underperformance has trained both advisers and clients to question whether value works at all. Bad meetings compound quarterly. The weight of sustained loss reshapes belief.
- Narratives now insulate prices from reality longer than before. A stock can shed 10% of value on a metric nobody understood, then recover half of it in minutes when the CEO clarifies. The gap between cartoon valuation and actual economics persists, stretching patience.
- The question isn't whether value investing works in theory. It's whether anyone can actually live through the endurance test. Advisers and clients hit breaking points. Strategies switch midstream. The cost of that behavior can dwarf any premium value eventually provides.
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This commentary is being provided to you as general information only and should not be taken as investment advice. The opinions expressed in these materials represent the personal views of the author(s). It is not investment research or a research recommendation, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis. Any action that you take as a result of information contained in this document is ultimately your responsibility. Epsilon Theory will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information. Consult your investment advisor before making any investment decisions. It must be noted, that no one can accurately predict the future of the market with certainty or guarantee future investment performance. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
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